German study sees revenue slump and job losses if platforms control news access

Germany’s journalistic media could lose 43% of their advertising and content revenue by 2035, compared with 2024, and up to half of professional journalists could disappear in the bleakest scenario set out in “Der deutsche Medienmarkt 2035.” The study does not present those results as a forecast. They are one potential outcome among four scenarios for the German media market.

Commissioned by ARD, ZDF and Deutschlandradio and presented Oct. 22, the study identifies the rising economic and journalistic importance of international technology platforms and AI applications as a central challenge. It argues that maintaining a diverse German media sector through 2035 will require fair conditions and a strong domestic media ecosystem.

The most pessimistic case, termed “Big Tech Takeover,” envisages technology companies gaining dominant influence over both access to information and the ways it is monetised. Journalists would continue reporting, investigating and analysing events, but audiences would increasingly reach that work through Google, ChatGPT and other platforms rather than publishers’ own sites.

That arrangement would leave editorial organisations bearing the cost of news production while platforms control audience access and a significant share of revenue opportunities. The study calls for action on regulation of global platforms, digital market conditions and cooperation between private and public-service media. It also says public-service broadcasting can help stabilise the market, support quality and innovation, and provide shared standards and infrastructure.

The findings arrive as use of generative AI for news access has risen across several countries, as this publication reported in October, increasing publishers’ concern that answer engines can supply reporting without sending readers to the original source.

An ARKA analysis applied the German scenario as a warning for Armenia, whose roughly three million-resident market has many outlets but limited advertising budgets. It cited Internews’ 2024 assessment that independent news organisations face advertising instability, dependence on project-based donor funding and little long-term institutional support. Some editorial operations also rely on political or corporate backers, while paid subscriptions remained extremely limited despite an increase in surveyed adults willing to pay for quality content, to 24% in 2024 from 17% a year earlier.

Armenian outlets are heavily dependent on Google, Facebook, YouTube and other platforms for audience access, without controlling their rules for attracting users. ARKA pointed to a July 2025 Pew Research Center finding that users clicked regular search links in 8% of searches when Google’s AI review feature appeared, against 15% when it did not. It cautioned that this observation neither measures Armenian publishers’ losses nor proves causation, but illustrates the exposure of sites dependent on search traffic.

The article argued that outlets built around mass traffic, banner advertising and republishing public information face particular risk. It suggested specialisation and practically useful information, alongside analytics, services and content licensing, but acknowledged that these may not replace lost advertising or search revenue in a small professional-information market. Its central question for Armenia was therefore how independent professional journalism will be financed in 10 years, rather than simply how many journalists AI might replace.